Selling an Inherited Home in SF or Marin Before Year End: IPO Money, 7.40% Rates and Prop 19

Why so many families are asking the same question this fall

In the last few weeks I have had a run of nearly identical conversations with San Francisco and Marin families who inherited a parent's home this year. The question is always some version of this: should we sell now, or wait until spring? There is no single right answer, but an unusual set of facts is lining up this October that makes "now" worth taking seriously. Here they are, with sources.

The IPO wave that has not landed yet

The San Francisco Standard reported on Oct. 14, 2026 that Anthropic is reportedly eyeing a November IPO, after the midterms according to the Wall Street Journal, while OpenAI has postponed its offering to 2027. Each company is expected to be valued at over $1 trillion. A Redfin analysis cited in the same piece found that former and current OpenAI and Anthropic employees could theoretically buy nearly a third of the homes in the San Francisco metro with IPO proceeds. The Standard put the Redfin median San Francisco home price at $1.7 million. The standard lockup period after an IPO is six months, and Anthropic is reportedly considering a longer one, but the city's chief economist, Ted Egan, was quoted saying employees will not wait for the lockup to start spending. For a seller, that means a large pool of future buying power is forming and some of it is already shopping on expectation.

Rates are high, and the Fed meets Oct. 28

Freddie Mac's weekly survey, as reported by WRE News on Oct. 15, 2026, put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week, with the 15-year at 6.71%. A year earlier the 30-year was 6.27%. That is one reason the buyers winning bidding wars right now tend to be the ones with cash. The next Federal Open Market Committee decision is Oct. 28. I am not going to guess what the Fed does. Mortgage rates do not move in lockstep with the Fed funds rate, and a seller who waits for a cut to bring more buyers is making a bet with a lot of variables in it.

Prop 19 changed the math on keeping the house

This is the piece families most often learn too late. Under Proposition 19, in effect since Feb. 16, 2021, an inherited home keeps the parent's property-tax basis only if the child moves in and uses it as a primary residence within one year of the transfer, and even then only up to the assessed value plus $1 million. If no child moves in, or the value exceeds that cap, the home is reassessed to current market value. For a San Francisco or Marin house bought decades ago, that can mean a much larger property-tax bill. The California Board of Equalization has detailed guidance on this. For heirs, holding the house as a rental or a weekend place is far more expensive than it used to be, and that drives a lot of the year-end sales I see.

AB 2016 and the $750,000 simplified probate limit

California's AB 2016, effective April 1, 2025, created a simplified path for a primary residence worth up to $750,000 to pass by petition without full probate, as explained by the California Courts and in the RMO Lawyers summary of the law. In San Francisco and Marin, though, most homes are worth more than $750,000, so full probate is usually still required unless the home was held in a trust. Full probate takes time and involves the court, so families who want to sell into the current market begin the paperwork early rather than waiting for a "better" season.

The market is unusually kind to sellers right now

The San Francisco Business Times reported on Oct. 15, 2026, citing a Compass report by chief economist Mike Simonsen, that a record 91.6% of San Francisco homes sold above asking in September, up from 74% a year earlier, with the typical house selling 31% over asking. Inventory was the lowest for any September since at least 2020, with just 239 single-family homes on the market at the end of the month. For an inherited home that may be dated but sits on a good block, that scarcity is a seller's best friend.

What this means for SF and Marin heirs

Put it together: well-funded buyers forming on the horizon, high rates that favor the cash buyers already active, a property-tax rule that makes holding the house expensive, a probate process that takes time, and a fall market with record overbids. None of that means every family should sell before Dec. 31; some should keep the home, and some should wait. But if your instinct is to sell, the facts lean toward starting the probate and preparation work now. I help SF and Marin families with inherited and probate home sales and am glad to walk through the timeline with you and your attorney. On the Marin side, my Marin County page covers the towns where most of these conversations happen.

Sources: The San Francisco Standard, Oct. 14, 2026; WRE News (Freddie Mac weekly survey), Oct. 15, 2026; San Francisco Business Times, Oct. 15, 2026; California Board of Equalization, Proposition 19 guidance; California Courts and RMO Lawyers, AB 2016 explainer; Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (Oct. 28, 2026 meeting). This article is general information, not tax or legal advice.