October 2026 Market Update: 75% of San Francisco Homes Sold Over Asking

October in one number

Three out of four homes that closed in San Francisco in October 2026 sold for more than the asking price. That is the number to remember from last month, and it comes straight from the MLS: of 596 closed sales in San Francisco between October 1 and October 31, 75% closed above list, 10% closed at list and 15% closed below. The average sale-to-list ratio was +19%. The median home went into contract in 13 days. The median sold price was $1,900,000.

Marin is a different market right now

Across the bridge the picture is calmer. Marin County recorded 281 closed sales in October with a median sold price of $1,500,000. Only 38% of Marin sales closed above asking; 8% closed at list and 54% closed below. The average Marin sale landed almost exactly at the list price, and the median time to contract was 21 days, eight days longer than San Francisco. The biggest Marin closing of the month was 108 Pepper Avenue in Larkspur at $10,100,000, which went into contract in two days at 12% over its $9,000,000 list. The biggest Marin overbid was 11 Grove Street in downtown Mill Valley, listed at $2,495,000 and sold for $3,826,000, 53% over, in seven days. At the other end, 260 East Blithedale in Mill Valley sold for $1,900,000 after 73 days on market, 24% under its $2,495,000 list. For town-level context see Mill Valley, Larkspur and Marin County.

The sale of the month: Pacheco Street

Two brand-new houses next door to each other in Golden Gate Heights tell the San Francisco story better than any average. 496 Pacheco Street, a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home of about 2,455 square feet, was listed at $2,144,000. 494 Pacheco Street, 3 bedrooms and 3 baths at about 2,695 square feet, was listed at $2,354,000. Both closed on October 14, nine days after listing, at exactly $4,995,000. That is 133% over list on one and 112% on the other. Nobody expected those homes to sell for $2.1 million; the list prices were set to start a bidding war, and the buyers showed up. The same strategy produced a $15,000,000 sale at 2 6th Avenue in Lake Street, listed at $7,999,000 and sold 88% over, and the $28,500,000 trust sale at 20 Cherry Street in Presidio Heights, $10,000,000 over its list.

Where the overbids were

The Sunset, Parkside and Richmond districts carried the biggest percentage overbids in October. 2335 47th Avenue in the Outer Parkside was listed at $1,090,000 and sold for $1,900,000, 74% over, in three days. 1901 48th Avenue went from $899,000 to $1,560,000. 3932 Lawton Street went from $1,195,000 to $2,011,000. 623 23rd Avenue in the Central Richmond went from $1,195,000 to $1,800,000. These are 2- and 3-bedroom houses, usually one bath, often held by one family for decades, listed near $1 million and sold near $2 million. Noe Valley produced the biggest dollar gaps below the trophy tier: 1040 Sanchez Street, listed at $1,995,000 and sold off-market at $3,725,000, and 971 Sanchez Street, from $2,995,000 to $4,951,522.

What it means if you are selling this winter

In San Francisco, the playbook that worked in October was clear: a list price below what the seller expects, a short marketing window, an offer date, and a house that was cleared, repaired where it mattered and professionally prepared. The median 13 days to contract means buyers are deciding fast, and 75% over asking means they are competing. In Marin, the same tactic does not reliably produce the same result. With more than half of October sales closing at or below list and a 21-day median, a Marin list price has to be the number the seller can live with, because the overbid may not come. Condos in San Francisco are recovering too: the SF Business Times reported that the September median condo price reached $1.36 million, up 23% year over year, with 67% of units selling above asking, though larger units are gaining far faster than studios.

The rental backdrop

One more October number matters for owners thinking about renting instead of selling. Zumper's October data, reported by the SF Business Times and The Real Deal on October 28 and 29, put the median San Francisco one-bedroom rent at a record $4,430, up 26% year over year, the fastest increase of the 100 markets it tracks, with two-bedrooms at $6,320. With vacancy under 4% and Anthropic's IPO filing on October 26, demand is not easing. For most owners the sale math still wins, but it is a real conversation. Many of the Sunset and Parkside homes above were long-held family houses; if you are settling one, my guide to selling an inherited or trust home walks through the steps. We run these numbers on the first week of every month; November's update will follow the same format.

Sources: Compass MLS closed-sale data for San Francisco County and Marin County, Oct 1–31, 2026, pulled Nov 1, 2026 (877 records); SF Business Times, "San Francisco condos face a sales split" (Oct 27, 2026); The Real Deal, "San Francisco rents soar to new record high" (Oct 29, 2026), citing Zumper; KQED, "How Anthropic's IPO could affect the Bay Area" (Oct 29, 2026).