The Fed Meets December 8–9 and May Hike: What Heirs and Sellers in SF and Marin Should Do in the Next 30 Days (2026)

A hot jobs report changed the December conversation

The October jobs report came in far stronger than expected: 165,000 jobs added against a forecast of 59,000, with unemployment at 4.1% (InvestmentNews, Nov 6, 2026). That flipped the odds for the Federal Reserve's next meeting. CME FedWatch now shows a 76.8% chance of a quarter-point hike when the Fed meets December 8 and 9. The Fed hiked in September and then held at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 (InvestmentNews, Nov 6, 2026). So the question is not whether rates fall this winter. It is whether they go up again.

Why a Fed hike is not automatically a higher mortgage rate

Here is the part that trips people up. The Fed sets the short-term rate banks charge each other overnight. Your 30-year mortgage rate follows the bond market, mostly the 10-year Treasury yield, and bond investors are always guessing what the Fed will do months from now. Often a hike is priced in before it happens and mortgage rates barely move. Sometimes the two go in opposite directions for weeks.

That is roughly what we are seeing now. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.18% for the week of November 5, down from 7.24%, the third straight weekly decline (Freddie Mac PMMS, Nov 5, 2026). A year earlier it was 6.22%, so we are still nearly a point higher than last fall, but the recent direction has been down. Hannah Jones at Realtor.com has pointed out that a strong jobs report can push bond yields up and slow those declines (RealEstateNews, Nov 5, 2026). In plain terms, the "rates are falling" window may be real, and it may be short.

Buyer activity shows the strain. Purchase mortgage applications were down 19% from a year earlier, and Redfin reported pending sales at the lowest level in its records back to 2021 (RealEstateNews, Nov 5, 2026). Fewer buyers are out there, but those who are tend to be serious.

What this means if you inherited a house

I spend a lot of my time with heirs and trustees, and the most common plan I hear is some version of waiting for a better market. I understand the instinct. Selling a parent's home is emotional, and nobody wants to leave money on the table. But an empty inherited house is not a free option on a future price. Every month it sits, someone is paying property tax, insurance (harder to keep on a vacant house), utilities, yard care, and often a mortgage. In San Francisco there is one more line item coming: voters passed the Prop H Muni parcel tax on November 3 with about 74% support in early returns (SF Standard, Nov 4, 2026). For a single-family home up to 3,000 square feet it will run $129 a year, first appearing on the property tax bill mailed in fall 2027 (SFMTA parcel tax FAQ). Not huge, but one more cost on whoever holds the deed.

There is a bigger tax question for families thinking about keeping the house. Prop 19 requires the heir to move in within a year to keep the parents' property tax base. If nobody in the family is going to live there, the property will be reassessed, and "we'll decide later" quietly becomes a much more expensive plan. That clock is a good reason to decide now rather than drift into next summer.

A 30-day plan, written for real people

If you are an heir, trustee or executor sitting on a house in San Francisco, Marin or the Northern Peninsula, here is how I would spend the next month. Start with the paperwork. Find out whether the home is in a trust, whether a probate case has been opened, and who actually has authority to sign a listing agreement. If a probate attorney is involved, ask what has to happen before the property can be marketed. Nothing slows a sale like discovering in escrow that the wrong person signed.

Second, get a real valuation. Not an online estimate, and not a guess from a cousin who sold in 2021. Have an agent who knows the neighborhood walk the house and give you a range as it sits today, with an honest take on which repairs are worth doing. For trustees this also helps show you acted prudently.

Third, make the sell-versus-keep decision before December 9. Not because the Fed meeting is a magic date, but because families decide better with a deadline. Lay the carrying costs next to the realistic sale range and the Prop 19 question, and talk it through with your siblings, your CPA and your attorney.

Fourth, if the answer is sell, aim to be on the market in January rather than waiting for spring. Winter inventory is thin and January buyers are motivated. Use December to clear the house, handle inspections and disclosures, and get photography done. If the property is in Marin, my Marin County neighborhood guide is a good place to start.

This article is general information, not tax or legal advice. Please consult your attorney and CPA about your situation.

Sources: InvestmentNews, Nov 6, 2026 (jobs report, FedWatch odds, Fed decisions); Freddie Mac PMMS, Nov 5, 2026 (30-year rate); RealEstateNews, Nov 5, 2026 (purchase applications, pending sales, Hannah Jones comment); SF Standard, Nov 4, 2026 (Prop H early returns); SFMTA parcel tax FAQ, sfmta.com (Prop H amounts and timing).